海洋科学与工程学院专家短期授课：公共安全数据分析（Data analysis for Public Safety）（美国马里兰大学姜波博士）

姜波博士毕业于美国马里兰大学，目前是美国马里兰大学犯罪学和刑事司法学院研究助理、英国剑桥大学犯罪学研究所导师。曾在新加坡国立大学经济系、美国宾夕法尼亚大学犯罪学系攻读本科和硕士，并在新加坡国立大学商学院策略与政策系任教。从2014年起师从美国START主任、马里兰大学刑事司法系教授Gray LaFree教授。研究兴趣主要集中在采用高级量化分析方法对“人口贩运和社会控制”、“监狱与暴力政治极端主义”、“海盗”以及“恐怖袭击”等问题进行研究。论文发表在国际犯罪学知名期刊《定量犯罪学》等期刊上。其关于“中国南海和马六甲海峡海盗”的研究论文曾获得美国犯罪学协会国际犯罪学分会论文竞赛一等奖。

课程时间：2019年12月17日（星期二）-12月21日（星期六）

课程讲解的主要方法、数据和软件：

（1）涉及方法有空间计量经济学、生存分析、贝叶斯统计、社会网络、风险建模、机器学习等等；

（2）使用数据库为免费开放的“美国马里兰大学全球恐怖袭击”数据库和“海盗事件”数据库。

（2）讲解主要软件有ArcGIS、R、Stata等软件。

English Introduction for ‘Data analysis for Public Safety’

Introduction to the course：The emergence of maritime piracy has caused a great deal of concerns among various dimensions of our society. However, with few exceptions prior research has been hampered by a lack of theoretical underpinning and access to the most appropriate statistical methods. While there are nuances of piracy that can be considered quite unique, in general it can be situated within a broader framework of offending based on outcomes that seemingly share many of the same qualities. My research attempts to improve our understanding of the crime by testing three core tenets of situational perspectives in the context of piracy. Three research questions motivated by LaFree and Birbeck (1991)’s conceptualization of a situation is examined ：

1) To what extent does the study of maritime piracy support the central tenets of environmental criminology and crime and harm concentration at places;

2) How do offender motivation, target suitability and the absence of capable guardians and their convergence impact the instantaneous risk of piracy in South East Asia;

 3) To what extent do economic conditions of fishermen impact the instantaneous risk of piracy in East Africa and South East Asia.

I rely on the IMO-GISIS database from 1995 to 2014, as well as auxiliary data from various organizations to tackle these questions.

First, exploiting spatial econometrics methods, I find that there is statistically significant spatiotemporal patterns of concentration of hot spots and harm spots. The magnitude of the global diffusion of benefits is also estimated.

Second, results from survival analyses indicate that the hazard ratios of the measures of high motivation, absence of capable guardians, suitable targets and their convergence are greater than 1 and significant in both the Malacca Strait and South China Sea. The series of robustness tests based on both frequentist and Bayesian statistics provide similar conclusions.

Third, using a two-stage semiparametric approach, I find that there is statistically significant evidence to show that economic conditions of the fisherman-pirate adversely impact the instantaneous risk of ships being attacked in East Africa and the Malacca Strait and South China Sea. A robustness check based on an alternative specification supports the finding. I conclude with the implications of the research for theory, social policy and future research.

About the speaker: Dr. Bo Jiang obtained his PhD at the Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland. He is primarily interested in applying advanced quantitative methods to the study of the causes and consequences of transnational crimes. He is currently a Faculty Research Assistant at the Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland, and a Supervisor at the Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge. His publications have appeared in theJournal of Quantitative Criminology, among others.

主办单位：

上海海事大学 海洋科学与工程学院 安全科学与工程系

上海海事大学 海洋公共安全研究中心

上海海事大学 安全科技趋势研究中心